Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 97801.527006 103083.267891 108359.989304 114023.745641 119927.248513 125895.659126 132382.165264
2025-08-31 88288.044198 96309.452888 104543.826546 113617.986864 123326.105842 133390.227699 144601.204367
2025-09-07 82750.665577 92743.119653 103221.116026 115005.537449 127867.677531 141457.554272 156879.301618
2025-09-14 78243.605361 89710.927546 101951.428756 115953.330003 131489.444189 148161.881366 167368.471165
2025-09-21 74035.048975 86615.267643 100256.341173 116093.743918 133920.047097 153309.071450 175935.647158
2025-09-28 70471.840887 83966.242182 98807.455997 116269.084972 136176.054760 158087.463141 183950.312594
2025-10-05 68398.136775 82837.658446 98920.250097 118066.994997 140142.056060 164694.880984 193964.835490
2025-10-12 66391.178391 81645.908791 98837.997820 119531.042383 143638.173970 170709.804145 203277.364141
2025-10-19 64201.484937 80115.711650 98253.797922 120313.522121 146266.305496 175674.797272 211356.278427
2025-10-26 61865.622320 78298.667191 97231.978173 120489.442245 148108.916904 179675.733425 218286.162894
2025-11-02 59891.858908 76823.111138 96531.368959 120969.126759 150246.528190 183977.660526 225546.513671
2025-11-09 57809.986430 75129.476707 95491.926907 120971.876272 151758.269732 187502.840137 231871.685754
2025-11-16 56506.944500 74357.599504 95544.661209 122286.060667 154856.507168 192947.831424 240550.067579
2025-11-23 54553.616490 72712.655467 94476.345692 122188.336952 156216.989039 196307.334401 246750.685118
2025-11-30 53550.880778 72212.359844 94776.396320 123736.874029 159560.367977 202044.653866 255827.493693
2025-12-07 52358.560226 71424.183460 94678.821460 124760.422179 162239.629630 206975.437246 263947.060448
2025-12-14 50821.902809 70142.492996 93916.562171 124913.436629 163812.836707 210544.490055 270412.431791
2025-12-21 49386.646497 68942.551124 93213.282843 125100.487676 165397.399978 214109.983080 276872.965413
2025-12-28 48815.931792 68840.949706 93883.955692 127009.339380 169129.777215 220326.425660 286621.675842
2026-01-04 48120.630495 68547.950591 94287.731179 128563.376520 172411.922341 225996.813784 295726.795100
2026-01-11 47145.499466 67851.819444 94144.187500 129393.853893 174765.978798 230514.405063 303419.447225
2026-01-18 45941.367353 66813.450050 93523.783303 129580.557033 176280.014410 233973.762720 309798.717462
2026-01-25 44927.016479 65999.730072 93169.857667 130089.622807 178190.921073 237927.084253 316808.509150